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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

57-53  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Jul 31 • 7:05 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

54-56  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Andrew Painter
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Painter

#24 | Starting Pitcher
@
Brandon Young
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Young

#63 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andrew Painter 1-8 6.72 1.66 6.0 6
Brandon Young 8-2 3.31 1.29 5.2 5
1-8 W-L 8-2
6.72 ERA Ldr 3.31
1.66 WHIP Ldr 1.29
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.2
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 5
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
30%
📊
ORIOLES
70%
▲ Edge: +16.30% (BAL)
PHILLIES 51% Book Odds: -105
ORIOLES 54% Book Odds: -115
Book Implied: 51.20% / 53.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 9.0 63%
Under 9.0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

27.4%

Orioles Cover

72.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

PHI By 1-2 runs

12.4%

PHI By 3-4 runs

6.8%

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
6.4
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orioles Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Orioles Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
A
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.4
B
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 PHI @ BAL 8 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 PHI @ BAL 5 - 0
Jul 31, 2026 PHI @ BAL 4 - 6
Aug 6, 2025 BAL @ PHI 5 - 1
Aug 5, 2025 BAL @ PHI 0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Baltimore BAL
2
Games Played
▲ 161
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.724 ▲
OPS
.711
3
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +6533.3% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5) +41.5% more
Baltimore: 4.2 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season) +27.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Errors (L5) +23.0% more
Baltimore: 1.5 vs Philadelphia: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 4.0 4
BAL Score 6.4 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.5 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 7.9 6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 8.1 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 12.5 13.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.2 / 3.0 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -126 → -105 / -115 ↓
43%TICKETS57%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
36%TICKETS64%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
53%TICKETS47%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
PHI
BAL
PHI
ML
53% 83-73
59% 97-67
57% 90-69
49% 80-84
ATS
61% 95-60-1
65% 107-57
57% 90-68-1
51% 83-81
TTL
54% 81-70-5
57% 88-67-9
51% 78-75-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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