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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

55-56  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Jul 31 • 6:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

52-57  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Paul Skenes
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Skenes

#30 | Starting Pitcher
@
Hunter Greene
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Greene

#21 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Paul Skenes 9-9 3.90 1.06 4.0 7
Hunter Greene 2-2 6.83 1.34 6.0 4
9-9 W-L 2-2
3.90 Ldr ERA 6.83
1.06 Ldr WHIP 1.34
4.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
7 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
60%
📊
REDS
40%
▲ Edge: +4.20% (PIT)
PIRATES 56% Book Odds: -127
REDS 49% Book Odds: +105
Book Implied: 55.90% / 48.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 8.0 64%
Under 8.0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.2
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

38.2%

Reds Cover

61.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PIT By 3-4 runs

16.8%

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.8%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.3
PITTSBURGH
4.1
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Reds Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.2
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026 PIT @ CIN 4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 PIT @ CIN 7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 CIN @ PIT 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.734 ▲
OPS
.699
186
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +29.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.9 vs Cincinnati: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +17.6% more
Pittsburgh: 12.5 vs Cincinnati: 10.3
Errors (L5) +16.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.8 vs Cincinnati: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +13.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 5.3 7
CIN Score 4.1 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.1 / 8.0 12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 12.9 / 8.3 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 12.5 22.0 / 16.0
Walks 5.0 / 2.2 7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +118 → -127 / +105 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
73%TICKETS27%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
60%TICKETS40%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PIT
CIN
PIT
ML
55% 88-71
52% 82-77
49% 79-81
52% 85-78
ATS
54% 86-73
54% 86-73
50% 80-80
50% 81-82
TTL
53% 81-73-5
47% 72-81-6
54% 83-72-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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