Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Cubs NYY @ CHC

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

62-48  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Jul 31 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

62-48  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Will Warren
STARTING PITCHER

Will Warren

#29 | Starting Pitcher
@
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Will Warren 7-5 4.14 1.41 6.2 7
Shota Imanaga 7-8 3.67 1.10 6.2 6
7-5 W-L 7-8
4.14 ERA Ldr 3.67
1.41 WHIP Ldr 1.10
6.2 IP (Innings Pitched) 6.2
7 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 6
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
35%
📊
CUBS
65%
▲ Edge: +2.90% (CHC)
YANKEES 43% Book Odds: +135
CUBS 62% Book Odds: -163
Book Implied: 42.60% / 62%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 9.0 61%
Under 9.0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

34.5%

Cubs Cover

65.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

NYY By 1-2 runs

14.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

8.9%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
NEW YORK
5.9
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Cubs Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.2
B
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 NYY @ CHC 2 - 1
Aug 1, 2026 NYY @ CHC 2 - 5
Jul 31, 2026 NYY @ CHC 2 - 0
Jul 13, 2025 CHC @ NYY 4 - 1
Jul 12, 2025 CHC @ NYY 5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Chicago CHC
1
Games Played
▲ 2
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
1.041 ▲
OPS
.374
2 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +45.8% more
Chicago: 15.9 vs New York: 10.9
Hits (L5) +44.1% more
Chicago: 10.5 vs New York: 7.3
Walks (L5) +21.4% more
Chicago: 4.1 vs New York: 3.4
Runs per Game (Season) +94.4% more
New York: 9.0 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.3 2
CHC Score 5.9 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.5 / 7.3 5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 11.1 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 10.9 6.0 / 10.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.4 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +133 / -147 → +135 / -163 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
28%TICKETS72%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
28%TICKETS72%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
NYY
CHC
NYY
ML
58% 93-68
47% 76-85
51% 82-79
52% 85-77
ATS
61% 97-63-1
59% 95-66
47% 75-85-1
53% 86-76
TTL
52% 81-74-6
53% 81-73-7
46% 72-83-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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