Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Dodgers SEA @ LAD

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

53-57  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Jul 30 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

69-40  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Woo
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Woo

#22 | Starting Pitcher
@
Roki Sasaki
STARTING PITCHER

Roki Sasaki

#11 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Woo 7-7 4.56 1.14 5.0 8
Roki Sasaki 4-5 4.64 1.29 5.1 7
7-7 W-L 4-5
4.56 Ldr ERA 4.64
1.14 Ldr WHIP 1.29
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
8 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
37%
📊
DODGERS
63%
MARINERS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Los Angeles)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

35.4%

Dodgers Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SEA By 1-2 runs

15.0%

SEA By 3-4 runs

9.2%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
SEATTLE
5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Dodgers Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 30, 2026 SEA @ LAD 2 - 6
Jul 29, 2026 SEA @ LAD 2 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 SEA @ LAD 7 - 6
Sep 28, 2025 LAD @ SEA 6 - 1
Sep 27, 2025 LAD @ SEA 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.693
OPS
▲ .762
182
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +34.8% more
Los Angeles: 10.5 vs Seattle: 7.8
Walks (L5) +32.0% more
Los Angeles: 2.0 vs Seattle: 1.5
Runs per Game (Season) +20.5% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Seattle: 4.1
Total Bases (L5) +14.4% more
Los Angeles: 16.4 vs Seattle: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 3.5 2
LAD Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.5 / 7.8 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.5 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 7.8 13.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 16.4 / 14.3 15.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.0 / 1.5 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SEA
LAD
SEA
ML
56% 92-73
50% 81-81
48% 79-87
52% 85-77
ATS
59% 98-67
60% 98-64
43% 72-94
59% 95-67
TTL
48% 77-82-6
56% 85-67-10
44% 70-90-6
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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