SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
47-62 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
55-54 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Smith
#66 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
JP Sears
#38 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Smith | None-None | 2.50 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| JP Sears | 3-3 | 4.26 | 1.18 | 3.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
3-3
2.50 Ldr
ERA
4.26
--
WHIP
1.18
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
37%
PADRES
63%
GIANTS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SF By 1-2 runs
15.0%
SF By 3-4 runs
9.2%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
4
SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego
5.5
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Padres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
SD @ SF
6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026
SD @ SF
7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026
SF @ SD
4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026
SF @ SD
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.706
OPS
▲
.925
178
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+45.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
Errors (L5)
+27.0% more
San Diego: 0.9
vs
San Francisco: 0.6
OPS (Season)
+21.9%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
San Francisco: 70.6%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.3%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
San Francisco: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
4.0
4
SD Score
5.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.2 / 10.3
6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 7.2
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 15.4
7.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.0 / 4.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SF
SD
SF
ML
51%
85-83
49%
79-81
51%
85-82
53%
85-75
ATS
54%
91-77
62%
100-60
55%
92-75
52%
83-77
TTL
51%
82-80-6
55%
82-68-10
54%
86-74-6
46%
68-81-11
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