BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
57-51 | Road
5
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
45-64 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sonny Gray
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Barnett
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 12-2 | 2.93 | 1.16 | 7.0 | 5 |
| Mason Barnett | 1-1 | 4.85 | 1.38 | 5.0 | 6 |
12-2
W-L
1-1
2.93 Ldr
ERA
4.85
1.16 Ldr
WHIP
1.38
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
60%
ATHLETICS
40%
RED SOX
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
46%
Under 0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
5.2
BOSTON
Athletics
4.2
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Athletics
7
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Athletics
Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Athletics (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
C
Sim
o10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
ATH @ BOS
4 - 3
Aug 8, 2026
ATH @ BOS
7 - 3
Aug 7, 2026
ATH @ BOS
1 - 13
Jul 30, 2026
BOS @ ATH
5 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
BOS @ ATH
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Athletics
ATH
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.409
OPS
▲
.719
2
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+47.0% more
Boston: 4.0
vs
Athletics: 2.1
Errors (L5)
+27.9% more
Boston: 1.0
vs
Athletics: 0.8
Hits (L5)
+11.6% more
Boston: 8.7
vs
Athletics: 7.7
Home Runs (Season)
+9600.0% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
5.2
5
ATH Score
4.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.7 / 8.7
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 10.0
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 13.9
14.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.1 / 4.0
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
BOS
ATH
BOS
ML
59%
95-67
50%
80-80
54%
87-74
47%
76-87
ATS
52%
84-78
58%
93-67
50%
81-80
48%
79-84
TTL
54%
84-73-5
46%
72-83-5
42%
66-90-5
47%
74-83-6
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