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PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

55-55  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Jul 30 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

51-57  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Yohan Ramirez
STARTING PITCHER

Yohan Ramirez

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Rhett Lowder
STARTING PITCHER

Rhett Lowder

#25 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yohan Ramirez 6-3 3.10 1.38 2.0 4
Rhett Lowder 3-7 5.42 1.57 6.0 5
6-3 W-L 3-7
3.10 Ldr ERA 5.42
1.38 Ldr WHIP 1.57
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
4 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
64%
📊
REDS
36%
PIRATES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 46%
Under 0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

36.3%

Reds Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PIT By 3-4 runs

17.2%

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
PITTSBURGH
3.8
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Reds Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026 PIT @ CIN 4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 PIT @ CIN 7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 PIT @ CIN 2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 CIN @ PIT 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.734 ▲
OPS
.699
186
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +29.9% more
Pittsburgh: 12.7 vs Cincinnati: 8.9
Hits (L5) +28.4% more
Pittsburgh: 8.5 vs Cincinnati: 6.1
Errors (L5) +20.7% more
Pittsburgh: 1.2 vs Cincinnati: 0.9
Runs per Game (Season) +13.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 5.2 2
CIN Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.1 / 8.5 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 13.3 / 7.4 12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 8.9 / 12.7 13.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.3 9.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PIT
CIN
PIT
ML
55% 88-71
52% 82-77
49% 79-81
52% 85-78
ATS
54% 86-73
54% 86-73
50% 80-80
50% 81-82
TTL
53% 81-73-5
47% 72-81-6
54% 83-72-5
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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