MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
55-55 | Road
2
NEW YORK
METSNYM
47-63 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eury Perez
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez | 5-8 | 3.44 | 1.11 | 6.0 | 6 |
| Nolan McLean | 7-7 | 3.29 | 1.11 | 6.1 | 6 |
5-8
W-L
7-7
3.44
ERA
Ldr 3.29
1.11
WHIP
1.11
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
6
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
40%
METS
60%
MARLINS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
57%
Under 0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.2
MIAMI
New York
4.2
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Miami
2
MIAMI
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.4
C
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
NYM @ MIA
15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026
NYM @ MIA
7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
NYM @ MIA
9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026
MIA @ NYM
2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
MIA @ NYM
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.727
▲
OPS
.705
168
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+39.0% more
New York: 10.2
vs
Miami: 7.3
Home Runs (Season)
+21.4% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Errors (L5)
+25.0% more
Miami: 0.5
vs
New York: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.3% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.2
2
NYM Score
4.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 8.0
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.4
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 7.3
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 13.9
7.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.8
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIA
NYM
MIA
ML
50%
79-80
48%
78-84
48%
76-83
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-66
56%
91-71
49%
78-81
54%
86-74
TTL
55%
80-66-13
56%
88-69-5
51%
74-72-13
53%
82-73-5
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