WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
55-55 | Road
4
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
64-45 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | 2-4 | 5.56 | 1.35 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Grant Holmes | 6-4 | 3.88 | 1.36 | 4.2 | 4 |
2-4
W-L
6-4
5.56
ERA
Ldr 3.88
1.35 Ldr
WHIP
1.36
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
37%
BRAVES
63%
NATIONALS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
41%
Under 0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.8
WASHINGTON
Atlanta
5.2
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATL @ WSH
9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
ATL @ WSH
5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026
WSH @ ATL
3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.744
OPS
▲
.757
210
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.3% more
Atlanta: 9.7
vs
Washington: 7.0
OPS (Season)
+1.3%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Washington: 74.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.0%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Washington: 42.3%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.3%
Atlanta: 32.4%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.8
4
ATL Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 8.3
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.3
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 7.0
3.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 14.2
10.0 / 20.0
Walks
2.5 / 5.2
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
WSH
ATL
WSH
ML
46%
77-90
57%
92-69
54%
90-78
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-68
52%
87-81
57%
91-70
TTL
53%
83-73-11
50%
77-78-6
49%
76-80-11
42%
65-90-6
Contextual Game News
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Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
Shohei Ohtani's Slump Raises Concerns for Dodgers in NLDS