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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

62-47  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Jul 30 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

54-55  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Javier Assad
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Assad

#72 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andre Pallante
STARTING PITCHER

Andre Pallante

#53 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Javier Assad 6-1 3.75 1.12 4.1 6
Andre Pallante 11-6 3.72 1.21 6.1 3
6-1 W-L 11-6
3.75 ERA Ldr 3.72
1.12 Ldr WHIP 1.21
4.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.1
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
33%
📊
CARDINALS
67%
CUBS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (St. Louis)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

30.9%

Cardinals Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

CHC By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

7.8%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CHICAGO
5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Cardinals Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .378
.374
OPS
▲ .691
0
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16700.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +394.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season) +31.7%
St. Louis: 69.1% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Errors (L5) +25.0% more
St. Louis: 0.3 vs Chicago: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 3.0 4
STL Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 10.2 10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 9.5 9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 9.8 / 15.9 13.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.1 / 4.1 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHC
STL
CHC
ML
53% 85-74
58% 93-68
52% 84-77
51% 82-79
ATS
56% 89-70
61% 97-63-1
53% 85-76
47% 75-85-1
TTL
46% 68-81-10
52% 81-74-6
50% 76-75-10
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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