KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
46-64 | Road
3
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
55-55 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Noah Cameron
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron | 5-8 | 4.59 | 1.41 | 8.0 | 7 |
| Bailey Ober | 7-3 | 4.45 | 1.25 | 6.0 | 3 |
5-8
W-L
7-3
4.59
ERA
Ldr 4.45
1.41
WHIP
Ldr 1.25
8.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
37%
TWINS
63%
ROYALS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
49%
Under 0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
KC By 1-2 runs
15.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
9.5%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIN By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.8
KANSAS CITY
Minnesota
5.2
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Minnesota
7
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Twins
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Twins
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
MIN @ KC
4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026
MIN @ KC
1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026
MIN @ KC
2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
KC @ MIN
3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
KC @ MIN
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.718
OPS
▲
.720
170
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+10.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+7.0% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Home Runs (L5)
+86.0% more
Kansas City: 1.0
vs
Minnesota: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+39.3% more
Kansas City: 9.3
vs
Minnesota: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.8
3
MIN Score
5.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.9
3.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.1 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.6 / 9.3
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 13.1
6.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.0
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
KC
MIN
KC
ML
52%
84-78
55%
89-72
50%
80-81
56%
90-70
ATS
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
TTL
51%
78-75-9
58%
90-64-7
53%
80-72-9
54%
83-70-7
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