Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Dodgers SEA @ LAD

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

53-56  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Jul 29 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

68-40  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Emerson Hancock
STARTING PITCHER

Emerson Hancock

#26 | Starting Pitcher
@
Eric Lauer
STARTING PITCHER

Eric Lauer

#33 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emerson Hancock 6-4 3.26 1.01 5.0 5
Eric Lauer 5-5 4.50 1.26 6.0 4
6-4 W-L 5-5
3.26 Ldr ERA 4.50
1.01 Ldr WHIP 1.26
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
45%
📊
DODGERS
55%
MARINERS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 64%
Under 0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

45.0%

Dodgers Cover

55.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SEA By 1-2 runs

17.5%

SEA By 3-4 runs

12.1%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.1%

LAD By 3-4 runs

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
SEATTLE
5.3
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.1
B
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 30, 2026 SEA @ LAD 2 - 6
Jul 29, 2026 SEA @ LAD 2 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 SEA @ LAD 7 - 6
Sep 28, 2025 LAD @ SEA 6 - 1
Sep 27, 2025 LAD @ SEA 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.693
OPS
▲ .762
182
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +94.6% more
Los Angeles: 2.5 vs Seattle: 1.3
Runs per Game (Season) +20.5% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Seattle: 4.1
Home Runs (Season) +12.1% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Seattle: 182.0
Hits (L5) +11.4% more
Los Angeles: 10.2 vs Seattle: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 4.8 2
LAD Score 5.3 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.2 / 9.1 11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 2.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 9.1 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 16.5 / 17.4 16.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.5 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SEA
LAD
SEA
ML
56% 92-73
50% 81-81
48% 79-87
52% 85-77
ATS
59% 98-67
60% 98-64
43% 72-94
59% 95-67
TTL
48% 77-82-6
56% 85-67-10
44% 70-90-6
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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