BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
56-51 | Road
4
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
45-63 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Patrick Sandoval
#43 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Lopez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sandoval | 0-0 | 3.32 | 1.64 | 5.0 | 7 |
| Jacob Lopez | 5-4 | 5.79 | 1.67 | 5.1 | 8 |
0-0
W-L
5-4
3.32 Ldr
ERA
5.79
1.64 Ldr
WHIP
1.67
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.1
7
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
51%
ATHLETICS
49%
RED SOX
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
33%
Under 0
67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
13.9%
ATH By 1-2 runs
18.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
5.3
BOSTON
Athletics
5.2
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Boston
6
BOSTON
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
D
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
A
Sim
u10.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
ATH @ BOS
4 - 3
Aug 8, 2026
ATH @ BOS
7 - 3
Aug 7, 2026
ATH @ BOS
1 - 13
Jul 30, 2026
BOS @ ATH
5 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
BOS @ ATH
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Athletics
ATH
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.409
OPS
▲
.719
2
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+45.6% more
Boston: 4.0
vs
Athletics: 2.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.1% more
Boston: 9.0
vs
Athletics: 7.7
Home Runs (Season)
+9600.0% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+331.0% more
Athletics: 4.3
vs
Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
5.3
4
ATH Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.5 / 7.0
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.8
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 9.0
14.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.3 / 11.3
15.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.2 / 4.0
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
BOS
ATH
BOS
ML
59%
95-67
50%
80-80
54%
87-74
47%
76-87
ATS
52%
84-78
58%
93-67
50%
81-80
48%
79-84
TTL
54%
84-73-5
46%
72-83-5
42%
66-90-5
47%
74-83-6
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