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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

55-55  |  Road

7
FINAL
Wed, Jul 29 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

42-67  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Hayden Wesneski
STARTING PITCHER

Hayden Wesneski

#39 | Starting Pitcher
@
Grayson Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Grayson Rodriguez

#21 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hayden Wesneski 0-0 4.76 0.00 5.2 4
Grayson Rodriguez 3-3 7.98 1.79 5.0 6
0-0 W-L 3-3
4.76 Ldr ERA 7.98
0.00 Ldr WHIP 1.79
5.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
4 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
59%
📊
ANGELS
41%
ASTROS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

40.1%

Angels Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

16.3%

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
HOUSTON
3.7
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
6
HOUSTON
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Astros Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Sim Astros (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 LAA @ HOU 18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026 LAA @ HOU 2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 LAA @ HOU 3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026 HOU @ LAA 7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 HOU @ LAA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .369
.582
OPS
▲ .679
4
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +61.3% more
Houston: 1.7 vs Los Angeles: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +21.8% more
Houston: 13.6 vs Los Angeles: 10.6
Strikeouts (L5) +16.2% more
Houston: 11.3 vs Los Angeles: 9.5
Home Runs (Season) +3750.0% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.7 7
LAA Score 3.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.3 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 7.7 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.7 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 11.3 5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 13.6 13.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.5 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
HOU
LAA
HOU
ML
59% 96-66
50% 81-82
55% 89-73
47% 77-87
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 91-72
51% 82-80
55% 90-74
TTL
53% 83-74-5
45% 70-84-9
52% 82-75-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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