CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
61-47 | Road
2
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
54-54 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Gastelum
#72 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | 6-1 | 3.41 | 1.24 | 7.0 | 5 |
| Luis Gastelum | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
6-1
W-L
None-None
3.41 Ldr
ERA
6.00
1.24
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
38%
CARDINALS
62%
CUBS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
66%
Under 0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
CHC By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CHC By 3-4 runs
9.5%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.4
CHICAGO
St. Louis
5.8
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cubs
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.2
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
STL @ CHC
11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
STL @ CHC
8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026
STL @ CHC
0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026
CHC @ STL
4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026
CHC @ STL
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
St. Louis
STL
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.378
.374
OPS
▲
.691
0
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16700.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+394.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+31.7%
St. Louis: 69.1%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+23.3%
St. Louis: 37.8%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.4
2
STL Score
5.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.1
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 13.9
7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.3 / 10.3
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
9.7 / 20.3
10.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.2
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHC
STL
CHC
ML
53%
85-74
58%
93-68
52%
84-77
51%
82-79
ATS
56%
89-70
61%
97-63-1
53%
85-76
47%
75-85-1
TTL
46%
68-81-10
52%
81-74-6
50%
76-75-10
46%
72-83-6
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