CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
56-54 | Road
6
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
50-57 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Singer
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | 8-6 | 3.88 | 1.46 | 4.0 | 8 |
| Brady Singer | 5-9 | 4.68 | 1.38 | 4.1 | 3 |
8-6
W-L
5-9
3.88 Ldr
ERA
4.68
1.46
WHIP
Ldr 1.38
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.1
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
32%
REDS
68%
GUARDIANS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CLE By 1-2 runs
13.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
7.6%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CIN By 3-4 runs
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
2.8
CLEVELAND
Cincinnati
4.9
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Reds
Loss
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Reds
Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
A
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
CLE @ CIN
6 - 1
Jul 28, 2026
CLE @ CIN
0 - 2
May 17, 2026
CIN @ CLE
3 - 10
May 16, 2026
CIN @ CLE
4 - 7
May 15, 2026
CIN @ CLE
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.696
OPS
▲
.699
162
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+93.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.3
vs
Cleveland: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+66.2% more
Cincinnati: 10.4
vs
Cleveland: 6.2
Errors (L5)
+49.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.9
vs
Cleveland: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+46.7% more
Cincinnati: 11.9
vs
Cleveland: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
2.8
6
CIN Score
4.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 4.4
6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.9 / 8.1
16.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.4 / 6.2
6.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.0
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CLE
CIN
CLE
ML
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
49%
80-82
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-68
50%
80-80
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
81-73-5
55%
88-71-2
54%
83-72-5
43%
69-90-2
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