TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
55-53 | Road
0
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
63-44 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
MacKenzie Gore
#1 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Casey Legumina
#67 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Gore | 6-8 | 4.77 | 1.31 | 7.0 | 9 |
| Casey Legumina | 2-2 | 3.80 | 1.32 | 1.2 | -- |
6-8
W-L
2-2
4.77
ERA
Ldr 3.80
1.31 Ldr
WHIP
1.32
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
29%
RAYS
71%
RANGERS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
83%
Under 0
17%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TEX By 1-2 runs
12.1%
TEX By 3-4 runs
6.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TB By 3-4 runs
19.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
5.1
TEXAS
Tampa Bay
7.6
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim
Rays
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
A
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 12.7
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
TB @ TEX
6 - 8
Sep 5, 2026
TB @ TEX
6 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
TB @ TEX
7 - 6
Sep 3, 2026
TB @ TEX
0 - 6
Jul 30, 2026
TEX @ TB
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.713
OPS
▲
.728
183
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.4% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Texas: 4.2
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.6%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Texas: 24.2%
OPS (Season)
+1.5%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Texas: 71.3%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.9%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
Texas: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
5.1
0
TB Score
7.6
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 8.8
3.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.7
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 10.5
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 16.0
10.0 / 8.0
Walks
1.5 / 2.6
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
TEX
TB
TEX
ML
58%
95-68
53%
86-76
58%
95-68
57%
91-70
ATS
60%
97-66
57%
92-70
55%
90-73
61%
98-63
TTL
47%
73-81-9
53%
78-70-14
51%
78-75-10
55%
81-66-14
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