COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
42-67 | Road
1
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
55-53 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gabriel Hughes
#43 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Hart
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Hughes | 0-2 | 3.33 | 1.14 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Kyle Hart | 0-2 | 4.87 | 1.11 | 2.2 | 3 |
0-2
W-L
0-2
3.33 Ldr
ERA
4.87
1.14
WHIP
Ldr 1.11
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
34%
PADRES
66%
ROCKIES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
COL By 1-2 runs
13.9%
COL By 3-4 runs
8.1%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
3.1
COLORADO
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim
Padres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
SD @ COL
3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026
SD @ COL
8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026
COL @ SD
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.64
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.739
OPS
▲
.925
180
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+61.4% more
San Diego: 4.0
vs
Colorado: 2.5
Hits (L5)
+53.6% more
San Diego: 12.2
vs
Colorado: 8.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+29.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Colorado: 4.6
Total Bases (L5)
+19.8% more
San Diego: 16.7
vs
Colorado: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
3.1
1
SD Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 1.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.2 / 8.0
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 10.3
3.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
16.7 / 13.9
7.0 / 6.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.5
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
COL
SD
COL
ML
51%
85-83
60%
97-64
51%
85-82
55%
88-73
ATS
54%
91-77
60%
97-64
55%
92-75
52%
83-78
TTL
51%
82-80-6
60%
93-62-6
54%
86-74-6
50%
77-78-6
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