BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
53-56 | Road
10
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
51-58 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brenan Hanifee
#75 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 6-7 | 4.27 | 1.27 | 6.0 | 6 |
| Brenan Hanifee | None-None | 3.98 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
6-7
W-L
None-None
4.27
ERA
Ldr 3.98
1.27
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
44%
TIGERS
56%
ORIOLES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.2%
BAL By 3-4 runs
11.8%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5.1
BALTIMORE
Detroit
5.7
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
BAL @ DET
10 - 9
Jul 28, 2026
BAL @ DET
0 - 14
Jul 27, 2026
BAL @ DET
8 - 5
May 24, 2026
DET @ BAL
3 - 5
May 22, 2026
DET @ BAL
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Detroit
DET
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
4.46
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.711
OPS
▲
.720
199
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+78.9% more
Detroit: 12.4
vs
Baltimore: 6.9
Total Bases (L5)
+75.5% more
Detroit: 19.7
vs
Baltimore: 11.2
Home Runs (L5)
+20.4% more
Detroit: 1.3
vs
Baltimore: 1.1
OPS (Season)
+0.9%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.1
10
DET Score
5.7
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
1.0 / 3.0
Hits
12.4 / 6.9
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.9
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
19.7 / 11.2
20.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.8
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BAL
DET
BAL
ML
54%
86-73
53%
83-73
54%
87-73
57%
90-69
ATS
64%
101-58
61%
95-60-1
57%
91-69
57%
90-68-1
TTL
46%
69-81-9
54%
81-70-5
46%
69-81-10
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
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