Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Dodgers SEA @ LAD

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

53-55  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Jul 28 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

67-40  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Justin Wrobleski
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Wrobleski

#70 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andres Munoz None-None 3.99 -- 1.0 1
Justin Wrobleski 11-2 2.88 1.01 6.0 7
None-None W-L 11-2
3.99 ERA Ldr 2.88
-- WHIP 1.01
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
45%
📊
DODGERS
55%
MARINERS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 64%
Under 0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

45.0%

Dodgers Cover

55.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SEA By 1-2 runs

17.5%

SEA By 3-4 runs

12.1%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.1%

LAD By 3-4 runs

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
SEATTLE
5.3
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
B
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 30, 2026 SEA @ LAD 2 - 6
Jul 29, 2026 SEA @ LAD 2 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 SEA @ LAD 7 - 6
Sep 28, 2025 LAD @ SEA 6 - 1
Sep 27, 2025 LAD @ SEA 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.693
OPS
▲ .762
182
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +20.5% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Seattle: 4.1
Walks (L5) +17.9% more
Los Angeles: 2.3 vs Seattle: 2.0
Home Runs (Season) +12.1% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Seattle: 182.0
OPS (Season) +6.9%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs Seattle: 69.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 4.8 7
LAD Score 5.3 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.8 / 8.7 13.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.0 2.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.2 4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 13.8 / 13.2 22.0 / 26.0
Walks 2.3 / 2.0 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SEA
LAD
SEA
ML
56% 92-73
50% 81-81
48% 79-87
52% 85-77
ATS
59% 98-67
60% 98-64
43% 72-94
59% 95-67
TTL
48% 77-82-6
56% 85-67-10
44% 70-90-6
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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