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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

54-55  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Jul 28 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

42-66  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Peter Lambert
STARTING PITCHER

Peter Lambert

#38 | Starting Pitcher
@
Reid Detmers
STARTING PITCHER

Reid Detmers

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Peter Lambert 8-5 3.06 1.12 5.0 6
Reid Detmers 3-7 4.03 1.10 5.0 9
8-5 W-L 3-7
3.06 Ldr ERA 4.03
1.12 WHIP Ldr 1.10
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
6 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
58%
📊
ANGELS
42%
ASTROS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

40.1%

Angels Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

16.3%

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
HOUSTON
3.7
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Angels Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 LAA @ HOU 18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026 LAA @ HOU 2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 LAA @ HOU 3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026 HOU @ LAA 7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 HOU @ LAA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .369
.582
OPS
▲ .679
4
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +36.6% more
Houston: 1.5 vs Los Angeles: 1.0
Home Runs (Season) +3750.0% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5) +64.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.2 vs Houston: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season) +34.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.0 vs Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.7 3
LAA Score 3.7 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.0 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 8.5 11.0 / 17.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 12.3 8.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.5 / 3.7 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
HOU
LAA
HOU
ML
59% 96-66
50% 81-82
55% 89-73
47% 77-87
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 91-72
51% 82-80
55% 90-74
TTL
53% 83-74-5
45% 70-84-9
52% 82-75-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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