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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

61-46  |  Road

10
FINAL
Tue, Jul 28 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

53-54  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Colin Rea
STARTING PITCHER

Colin Rea

#53 | Starting Pitcher
@
Michael McGreevy
STARTING PITCHER

Michael McGreevy

#36 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Colin Rea 7-7 4.67 1.42 6.0 2
Michael McGreevy 4-8 3.57 1.13 1.2 2
7-7 W-L 4-8
4.67 ERA Ldr 3.57
1.42 WHIP Ldr 1.13
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.2
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
38%
📊
CARDINALS
62%
CUBS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (St. Louis)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

36.3%

Cardinals Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

CHC By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CHC By 3-4 runs

9.5%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.4
CHICAGO
5.8
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
4
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.2
A
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .378
.374
OPS
▲ .691
0
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +16700.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +394.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season) +31.7%
St. Louis: 69.1% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season) +23.3%
St. Louis: 37.8% vs Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 4.4 10
STL Score 5.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 12.3 7.0 / 17.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 10.5 2.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 19.4 8.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.3 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHC
STL
CHC
ML
53% 85-74
58% 93-68
52% 84-77
51% 82-79
ATS
56% 89-70
61% 97-63-1
53% 85-76
47% 75-85-1
TTL
46% 68-81-10
52% 81-74-6
50% 76-75-10
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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