NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
61-46 | Road
3
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
55-51 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gerrit Cole
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Kay
#18 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 3-5 | 3.57 | 1.10 | 6.0 | 7 |
| Anthony Kay | 7-4 | 4.25 | 1.37 | 5.1 | 7 |
3-5
W-L
7-4
3.57 Ldr
ERA
4.25
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.37
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.1
7
K (Strikeouts)
7
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
33%
WHITE SOX
67%
YANKEES
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
67%
Under 0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
NYY By 1-2 runs
13.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.2
NEW YORK
Chicago
6.2
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Yankees
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.4
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 30, 2026
NYY @ CHW
1 - 2
Jul 29, 2026
NYY @ CHW
5 - 6
Jul 28, 2026
NYY @ CHW
3 - 2
Jul 27, 2026
NYY @ CHW
9 - 5
Jun 18, 2026
CHW @ NYY
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Chicago
CHW
1
Games Played
1
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
6.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.324
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.415
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.412
1.041
▲
OPS
.826
2
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+70.0% more
Chicago: 1.4
vs
New York: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+33.1% more
Chicago: 3.5
vs
New York: 2.6
Total Bases (L5)
+15.2% more
Chicago: 15.4
vs
New York: 13.3
Hits (L5)
+14.6% more
Chicago: 9.3
vs
New York: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.2
3
CHW Score
6.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 8.1
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 10.6
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 13.3
11.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.6
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
NYY
CHW
NYY
ML
49%
81-86
47%
76-85
56%
94-73
52%
85-77
ATS
59%
99-68
59%
95-66
56%
93-74
53%
86-76
TTL
58%
96-69-2
53%
81-73-7
51%
84-81-2
53%
82-72-7
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