KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
45-63 | Road
2
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
54-54 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Seth Lugo
#67 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | 4-6 | 4.22 | 1.37 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Taj Bradley | 9-4 | 3.65 | 1.22 | 6.0 | 10 |
4-6
W-L
9-4
4.22
ERA
Ldr 3.65
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 1.22
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 10
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
55%
TWINS
45%
ROYALS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
57%
Under 0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
KC By 1-2 runs
19.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
15.3%
MIN By 1-2 runs
17.2%
MIN By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4.9
KANSAS CITY
Minnesota
4.3
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.6
C
Sim
Royals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
MIN @ KC
4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026
MIN @ KC
1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026
MIN @ KC
2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
KC @ MIN
3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
KC @ MIN
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.718
OPS
▲
.720
170
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+84.5% more
Kansas City: 1.4
vs
Minnesota: 0.2
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.2%
Kansas City: 24.7%
vs
Minnesota: 24.5%
Hits (L5)
+23.0% more
Minnesota: 8.3
vs
Kansas City: 6.7
Home Runs (Season)
+10.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.9
2
MIN Score
4.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 6.7
10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 7.9
4.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 12.4
14.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.8
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
KC
MIN
KC
ML
52%
84-78
55%
89-72
50%
80-81
56%
90-70
ATS
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
TTL
51%
78-75-9
58%
90-64-7
53%
80-72-9
54%
83-70-7
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