CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
55-54 | Road
0
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
50-56 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Slade Cecconi
#44 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Ferguson
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slade Cecconi | 4-7 | 4.78 | 1.45 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Caleb Ferguson | 1-0 | 3.57 | 1.57 | 1.2 | 1 |
4-7
W-L
1-0
4.78
ERA
Ldr 3.57
1.45 Ldr
WHIP
1.57
3.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
31%
REDS
69%
GUARDIANS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CLE By 1-2 runs
13.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
7.6%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CIN By 3-4 runs
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
2.8
CLEVELAND
Cincinnati
4.9
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Reds
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
Reds
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
A
Sim
Reds (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
C
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
CLE @ CIN
6 - 1
Jul 28, 2026
CLE @ CIN
0 - 2
May 17, 2026
CIN @ CLE
3 - 10
May 16, 2026
CIN @ CLE
4 - 7
May 15, 2026
CIN @ CLE
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.696
OPS
▲
.699
162
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+89.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.5
vs
Cleveland: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+74.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.3
vs
Cleveland: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+59.8% more
Cincinnati: 12.6
vs
Cleveland: 7.9
Hits (L5)
+51.6% more
Cincinnati: 7.7
vs
Cleveland: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
2.8
0
CIN Score
4.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 5.1
3.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.4 / 8.7
15.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 7.9
6.0 / 3.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.5
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CLE
CIN
CLE
ML
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
49%
80-82
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-68
50%
80-80
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
81-73-5
55%
88-71-2
54%
83-72-5
43%
69-90-2
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…