TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
49-59 | Road
6
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
55-53 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Bieber
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 2-1 | 5.74 | 1.43 | 0.2 | -- |
| Cade Cavalli | 7-4 | 3.55 | 1.29 | 6.0 | 3 |
2-1
W-L
7-4
5.74
ERA
Ldr 3.55
1.43
WHIP
Ldr 1.29
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
55%
NATIONALS
45%
BLUE JAYS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
66%
Under 0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TOR By 3-4 runs
15.0%
WSH By 1-2 runs
17.5%
WSH By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.4
TORONTO
Washington
4.9
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.5
C
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
TOR @ WSH
5 - 2
Jul 28, 2026
TOR @ WSH
6 - 8
Jul 27, 2026
TOR @ WSH
3 - 2
Apr 2, 2025
WSH @ TOR
2 - 4
Apr 1, 2025
WSH @ TOR
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.692
OPS
▲
.744
152
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+40.0% more
Toronto: 0.6
vs
Washington: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+116.0% more
Washington: 1.8
vs
Toronto: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+63.9% more
Washington: 4.0
vs
Toronto: 2.4
Total Bases (L5)
+46.5% more
Washington: 19.0
vs
Toronto: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.4
6
WSH Score
4.9
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
2.0 / 2.0
Hits
10.2 / 8.7
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.7
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 6.5
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
19.0 / 13.0
14.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.4
8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TOR
WSH
TOR
ML
57%
92-69
46%
74-87
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
90-71
57%
91-70
49%
79-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
51%
80-76-5
42%
65-90-6
45%
70-85-5
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