PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
57-51 | Road
0
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
54-54 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 3-8 | 5.61 | 1.45 | 5.2 | 4 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 10-6 | 3.82 | 1.23 | 7.0 | 5 |
3-8
W-L
10-6
5.61
ERA
Ldr 3.82
1.45
WHIP
Ldr 1.23
5.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
49%
MARLINS
51%
PHILLIES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
52%
Under 0
48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
13.3%
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.2
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
4.3
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
MIA @ PHI
1 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
MIA @ PHI
4 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
MIA @ PHI
5 - 6
Jul 29, 2026
PHI @ MIA
6 - 8
Jul 28, 2026
PHI @ MIA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.724
OPS
▲
.727
3
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5500.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+36.0% more
Miami: 1.3
vs
Philadelphia: 0.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+26.0% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
On-Base Pct (Season)
+4.0%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.2
0
MIA Score
4.3
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 9.0
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.5
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 14.4
9.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.4 / 3.2
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PHI
MIA
PHI
ML
48%
78-84
59%
97-67
55%
88-72
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
91-71
65%
107-57
54%
86-74
51%
83-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
57%
88-67-9
53%
82-73-5
51%
78-76-9
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