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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

52-56  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, Jul 28 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

51-57  |  Home

14
Probable Pitchers
Josh Walker
STARTING PITCHER

Josh Walker

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Troy Melton
STARTING PITCHER

Troy Melton

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Josh Walker None-None 3.86 -- 1.2 1
Troy Melton 5-1 1.75 0.95 7.0 5
None-None W-L 5-1
3.86 ERA Ldr 1.75
-- WHIP 0.95
1.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
45%
📊
TIGERS
55%
ORIOLES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Detroit)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

44.0%

Tigers Cover

56.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

BAL By 1-2 runs

17.2%

BAL By 3-4 runs

11.8%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.3%

DET By 3-4 runs

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
BALTIMORE
5.7
DETROIT
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.8
A
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 29, 2026 BAL @ DET 10 - 9
Jul 28, 2026 BAL @ DET 0 - 14
Jul 27, 2026 BAL @ DET 8 - 5
May 24, 2026 DET @ BAL 3 - 5
May 22, 2026 DET @ BAL 4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Detroit DET
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46
Runs / Game
4.46
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .241
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.711
OPS
▲ .720
199 ▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +16.0% more
Detroit: 0.8 vs Baltimore: 0.6
OPS (Season) +0.9%
Detroit: 72.0% vs Baltimore: 71.1%
Batting Avg (Season) +0.7%
Detroit: 24.1% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.6%
Detroit: 32.0% vs Baltimore: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 5.1 0
DET Score 5.7 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.1 / 8.9 19.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.6 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 8.3 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 15.3 33.0 / 3.0
Walks 2.9 / 4.8 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BAL
DET
BAL
ML
54% 86-73
53% 83-73
54% 87-73
57% 90-69
ATS
64% 101-58
61% 95-60-1
57% 91-69
57% 90-68-1
TTL
46% 69-81-9
54% 81-70-5
46% 69-81-10
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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