BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
55-50 | Road
4
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
44-62 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Payton Tolle
#70 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Perkins
#50 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | 5-6 | 3.32 | 1.10 | 5.1 | 7 |
| Jack Perkins | 2-5 | 6.45 | 1.42 | 5.2 | 4 |
5-6
W-L
2-5
3.32 Ldr
ERA
6.45
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.42
5.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
51%
ATHLETICS
49%
RED SOX
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
13.9%
ATH By 1-2 runs
18.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
5.3
BOSTON
Athletics
5.2
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Boston
6
BOSTON
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
D
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.5
A
Sim
u10.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
ATH @ BOS
4 - 3
Aug 8, 2026
ATH @ BOS
7 - 3
Aug 7, 2026
ATH @ BOS
1 - 13
Jul 30, 2026
BOS @ ATH
5 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
BOS @ ATH
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Athletics
ATH
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.409
OPS
▲
.719
2
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+20.7% more
Boston: 8.9
vs
Athletics: 7.1
Home Runs (Season)
+9600.0% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+331.0% more
Athletics: 4.3
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+116.0% more
Athletics: 1.4
vs
Boston: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
5.3
4
ATH Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.1 / 7.3
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 8.9
13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 10.9
12.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.5
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
BOS
ATH
BOS
ML
59%
95-67
50%
80-80
54%
87-74
47%
76-87
ATS
52%
84-78
58%
93-67
50%
81-80
48%
79-84
TTL
54%
84-73-5
46%
72-83-5
42%
66-90-5
47%
74-83-6
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