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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

53-55  |  Road

6
FINAL
Mon, Jul 27 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

42-65  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Tatsuya Imai
STARTING PITCHER

Tatsuya Imai

#45 | Starting Pitcher
@
Walbert Urena
STARTING PITCHER

Walbert Urena

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tatsuya Imai 6-4 5.83 1.47 0.2 1
Walbert Urena 6-7 2.70 1.31 6.0 5
6-4 W-L 6-7
5.83 ERA Ldr 2.70
1.47 WHIP Ldr 1.31
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
58%
📊
ANGELS
42%
ASTROS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

40.1%

Angels Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

16.3%

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
HOUSTON
3.7
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
6
HOUSTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Astros Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Sim Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 LAA @ HOU 18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026 LAA @ HOU 2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 LAA @ HOU 3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026 HOU @ LAA 7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 HOU @ LAA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .369
.582
OPS
▲ .679
4
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +46.9% more
Houston: 1.8 vs Los Angeles: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +11.7% more
Houston: 14.0 vs Los Angeles: 12.3
Home Runs (Season) +3750.0% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5) +46.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.7 vs Houston: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.7 6
LAA Score 3.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.3 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 8.0 6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.2 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 14.0 11.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.0 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
HOU
LAA
HOU
ML
59% 96-66
50% 81-82
55% 89-73
47% 77-87
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 91-72
51% 82-80
55% 90-74
TTL
53% 83-74-5
45% 70-84-9
52% 82-75-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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