ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
62-44 | Road
3
NEW YORK
METSNYM
45-62 | Home
14
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Martin Perez
#33 | SP@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Zac Thornton
#49 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez | 6-6 | 3.49 | 1.20 | 5.0 | 4 |
| Zac Thornton | 1-1 | 2.43 | 0.86 | 6.1 | 5 |
6-6
W-L
1-1
3.49
ERA
Ldr 2.43
1.20
WHIP
Ldr 0.86
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
41%
METS
59%
BRAVES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
54%
Under 0
46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
ATL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
New York
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
New York
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
NYM @ ATL
3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
NYM @ ATL
0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026
NYM @ ATL
8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026
ATL @ NYM
1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026
ATL @ NYM
3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
New York
NYM
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.757
▲
OPS
.705
1
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+20300.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+25.9% more
New York: 1.4
vs
Atlanta: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.4% more
New York: 10.5
vs
Atlanta: 8.3
Walks (L5)
+15.2% more
New York: 5.0
vs
Atlanta: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.0
3
NYM Score
5.0
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 8.4
19.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.1
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 8.3
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 13.7
34.0 / 9.0
Walks
5.0 / 4.4
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
ATL
NYM
ATL
ML
50%
79-80
46%
77-90
48%
76-83
54%
90-78
ATS
58%
93-66
57%
96-71
49%
78-81
52%
87-81
TTL
55%
80-66-13
53%
83-73-11
51%
74-72-13
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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