TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
49-58 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
54-53 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Max Scherzer
#31 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eddy Yean
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 1-4 | 9.49 | 1.73 | 2.2 | 4 |
| Eddy Yean | 0-0 | 2.35 | 0.56 | 2.1 | -- |
1-4
W-L
0-0
9.49
ERA
Ldr 2.35
1.73
WHIP
Ldr 0.56
2.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.1
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
55%
NATIONALS
45%
BLUE JAYS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
67%
Under 0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TOR By 3-4 runs
15.0%
WSH By 1-2 runs
17.5%
WSH By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.4
TORONTO
Washington
4.9
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.5
C
Sim
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim
o10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
TOR @ WSH
5 - 2
Jul 28, 2026
TOR @ WSH
6 - 8
Jul 27, 2026
TOR @ WSH
3 - 2
Apr 2, 2025
WSH @ TOR
2 - 4
Apr 1, 2025
WSH @ TOR
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.692
OPS
▲
.744
152
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.9% more
Toronto: 8.3
vs
Washington: 6.3
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Toronto: 0.4
vs
Washington: 0.3
Home Runs (L5)
+174.0% more
Washington: 2.2
vs
Toronto: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+142.0% more
Washington: 3.9
vs
Toronto: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.4
3
WSH Score
4.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.4 / 9.5
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 8.3
13.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
22.0 / 13.0
13.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.9 / 1.6
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TOR
WSH
TOR
ML
57%
92-69
46%
74-87
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
90-71
57%
91-70
49%
79-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
51%
80-76-5
42%
65-90-6
45%
70-85-5
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