BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
52-55 | Road
8
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
50-57 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Bradish
#38 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Keider Montero
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 7-9 | 3.74 | 1.32 | 4.2 | 4 |
| Keider Montero | 7-5 | 3.34 | 0.96 | 4.1 | 1 |
7-9
W-L
7-5
3.74
ERA
Ldr 3.34
1.32
WHIP
Ldr 0.96
4.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.1
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
44%
TIGERS
56%
ORIOLES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
71%
Under 0
29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.2%
BAL By 3-4 runs
11.8%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5.1
BALTIMORE
Detroit
5.7
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Orioles (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
A
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
BAL @ DET
10 - 9
Jul 28, 2026
BAL @ DET
0 - 14
Jul 27, 2026
BAL @ DET
8 - 5
May 24, 2026
DET @ BAL
3 - 5
May 22, 2026
DET @ BAL
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Detroit
DET
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
4.46
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.711
OPS
▲
.720
199
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+10.7% more
Detroit: 8.1
vs
Baltimore: 7.4
OPS (Season)
+0.9%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.7%
Detroit: 24.1%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.6%
Detroit: 32.0%
vs
Baltimore: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.1
8
DET Score
5.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 7.4
11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.9
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 11.0
10.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 11.5
15.0 / 23.0
Walks
3.9 / 5.2
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BAL
DET
BAL
ML
54%
86-73
53%
83-73
54%
87-73
57%
90-69
ATS
64%
101-58
61%
95-60-1
57%
91-69
57%
90-68-1
TTL
46%
69-81-9
54%
81-70-5
46%
69-81-10
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
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