ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
55-52 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
55-52 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 8-8 | 4.86 | 1.48 | 5.2 | 6 |
| Mitch Keller | 6-7 | 4.83 | 1.31 | 5.1 | 4 |
8-8
W-L
6-7
4.86
ERA
Ldr 4.83
1.48
WHIP
Ldr 1.31
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.1
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
33%
PIRATES
67%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
71%
Under 0
29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
ARI By 1-2 runs
13.9%
ARI By 3-4 runs
8.1%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
18.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.4
ARIZONA
Pittsburgh
6.3
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Pirates
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.7
A
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
ARI @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 28, 2026
ARI @ PIT
8 - 7
Jul 27, 2026
ARI @ PIT
2 - 3
May 7, 2026
PIT @ ARI
4 - 2
May 6, 2026
PIT @ ARI
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.720
OPS
▲
.734
166
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+82.8% more
Pittsburgh: 8.4
vs
Arizona: 4.6
Home Runs (Season)
+12.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.7% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+1.4%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.4
2
PIT Score
6.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.1 / 9.3
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 4.6
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 15.9
11.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.7 / 5.1
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ARI
PIT
ARI
ML
52%
82-77
54%
87-74
52%
85-78
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
81-82
56%
89-71
TTL
47%
72-81-6
52%
80-73-8
50%
79-78-6
49%
73-77-9
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