NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
59-46 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
57-49 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Will Warren
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Warren | 7-4 | 4.41 | 1.37 | 3.0 | 5 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 12-4 | 2.73 | 1.19 | 6.0 | 6 |
7-4
W-L
12-4
4.41
ERA
Ldr 2.73
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 1.19
3.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
41%
PHILLIES
59%
YANKEES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
51%
Under 0
49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
NYY By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.8
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
4.8
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
NYY @ PHI
4 - 11
Jul 25, 2026
NYY @ PHI
3 - 1
Jul 24, 2026
NYY @ PHI
1 - 0
Jul 27, 2025
PHI @ NYY
3 - 4
Jul 26, 2025
PHI @ NYY
9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
1
Games Played
▲
2
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.438
1.041
▲
OPS
.724
2
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+55.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.9
vs
New York: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+61.1% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Home Runs (L5)
+42.0% more
New York: 1.3
vs
Philadelphia: 0.8
OPS (Season)
+31.7%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Philadelphia: 72.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
3.8
4
PHI Score
4.8
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.3
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.7 / 6.7
12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 9.7
10.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 11.7
20.0 / 14.0
Walks
1.8 / 1.7
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYY
PHI
NYY
ML
59%
97-67
47%
76-85
49%
80-84
52%
85-77
ATS
65%
107-57
59%
95-66
51%
83-81
53%
86-76
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
81-73-7
51%
78-76-9
53%
82-72-7
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