SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
52-54 | Road
6
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
53-52 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Gilbert
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 8-6 | 3.44 | 0.98 | 5.2 | 4 |
| Jacob deGrom | 7-6 | 3.67 | 1.05 | 5.0 | 4 |
8-6
W-L
7-6
3.44 Ldr
ERA
3.67
0.98 Ldr
WHIP
1.05
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
46%
RANGERS
54%
MARINERS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
SEA By 1-2 runs
17.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
12.1%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TEX By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Texas
5.5
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Texas
3
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Mariners (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
A
Sim
u7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
TEX @ SEA
3 - 4
Sep 9, 2026
TEX @ SEA
2 - 3
Sep 8, 2026
TEX @ SEA
10 - 5
Jul 27, 2026
SEA @ TEX
3 - 7
Jul 26, 2026
SEA @ TEX
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.693
OPS
▲
.713
182
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+74.8% more
Texas: 17.2
vs
Seattle: 9.8
Home Runs (L5)
+66.0% more
Texas: 1.1
vs
Seattle: 0.4
Hits (L5)
+43.6% more
Texas: 10.5
vs
Seattle: 7.3
Walks (L5)
+15.9% more
Texas: 2.5
vs
Seattle: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
5.0
6
TEX Score
5.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.5 / 7.3
6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 8.2
12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
17.2 / 9.8
10.0 / 23.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.1
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SEA
TEX
SEA
ML
53%
86-76
50%
81-81
57%
91-70
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
92-70
60%
98-64
61%
98-63
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
78-70-14
56%
85-67-10
55%
81-66-14
53%
81-71-10
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …