CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
49-55 | Road
5
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
53-52 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | 5-6 | 3.85 | 1.40 | 6.0 | 4 |
| Kyle Leahy | 7-4 | 3.55 | 1.35 | 6.0 | 9 |
5-6
W-L
7-4
3.85
ERA
Ldr 3.55
1.40
WHIP
Ldr 1.35
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
48%
CARDINALS
52%
REDS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
57%
Under 0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.1%
CIN By 3-4 runs
13.0%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.5
CINCINNATI
St. Louis
4.7
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Reds (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
STL @ CIN
10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026
STL @ CIN
4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
STL @ CIN
3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026
STL @ CIN
2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026
CIN @ STL
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.699
▲
OPS
.691
213
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+12.3% more
St. Louis: 7.4
vs
Cincinnati: 6.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.0%
St. Louis: 23.9%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.8%
St. Louis: 31.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.5
5
STL Score
4.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.5
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
7.4 / 6.6
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 1.2
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 9.1
8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
9.6 / 10.8
10.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.8
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CIN
STL
CIN
ML
53%
85-74
55%
88-71
52%
84-77
49%
79-81
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
80-80
TTL
46%
68-81-10
53%
81-73-5
50%
76-75-10
54%
83-72-5
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…