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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

44-61  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Jul 26 • 2:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

53-54  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Jeffrey Springs
STARTING PITCHER

Jeffrey Springs

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Connor Prielipp
STARTING PITCHER

Connor Prielipp

#61 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jeffrey Springs 3-9 6.23 1.42 1.1 --
Connor Prielipp 2-5 4.73 1.37 5.2 5
3-9 W-L 2-5
6.23 ERA Ldr 4.73
1.42 WHIP Ldr 1.37
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
52%
📊
TWINS
48%
ATHLETICS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

47.0%

Twins Cover

53.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

ATH By 1-2 runs

18.9%

ATH By 3-4 runs

14.4%

MIN By 1-2 runs

17.9%

MIN By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
ATHLETICS
4.2
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
ATHLETICS
6
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
D
Sim Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 MIN @ ATH 4 - 7
Aug 25, 2026 MIN @ ATH 2 - 4
Aug 24, 2026 MIN @ ATH 9 - 6
Jul 26, 2026 ATH @ MIN 8 - 11
Jul 25, 2026 ATH @ MIN 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.719
OPS
▲ .720
194 ▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +29.0% more
Athletics: 0.6 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +21.3% more
Athletics: 10.7 vs Minnesota: 8.4
Hits (L5) +11.0% more
Athletics: 6.7 vs Minnesota: 5.9
Home Runs (Season) +3.6% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Minnesota: 187.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 4.5 8
MIN Score 4.2 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 0.0 / 4.0
Hits 5.9 / 6.7 13.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 7.6 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 8.4 / 10.7 22.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.9 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
ATH
MIN
ATH
ML
52% 84-78
59% 95-67
50% 80-81
54% 87-74
ATS
59% 95-67
52% 84-78
59% 95-66
50% 81-80
TTL
51% 78-75-9
54% 84-73-5
53% 80-72-9
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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