SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
53-53 | Road
5
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
52-54 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Walker Buehler
#10 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Janson Junk
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 6-5 | 5.13 | 1.43 | 5.1 | 7 |
| Janson Junk | 4-6 | 4.89 | 1.35 | 4.2 | 6 |
6-5
W-L
4-6
5.13
ERA
Ldr 4.89
1.43
WHIP
Ldr 1.35
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.2
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
38%
MARLINS
62%
PADRES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
54%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
SD By 1-2 runs
15.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
9.5%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.2
SAN DIEGO
Miami
5.6
MIAMI
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
MIA @ SD
3 - 7
Sep 19, 2026
MIA @ SD
6 - 7
Sep 18, 2026
MIA @ SD
2 - 8
Jul 26, 2026
SD @ MIA
5 - 3
Jul 25, 2026
SD @ MIA
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925
▲
OPS
.727
4
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4100.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Miami: 0.9
vs
San Diego: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.0% more
Miami: 8.5
vs
San Diego: 7.4
Walks (L5)
+49.1% more
San Diego: 4.5
vs
Miami: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.2
5
MIA Score
5.6
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.0 / 9.0
5.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 7.4
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 14.3
9.0 / 21.0
Walks
2.3 / 4.5
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
SD
MIA
SD
ML
48%
78-84
51%
85-83
55%
88-72
51%
85-82
ATS
56%
91-71
54%
91-77
54%
86-74
55%
92-75
TTL
56%
88-69-5
51%
82-80-6
53%
82-73-5
54%
86-74-6
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …