Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Mets LAD @ NYM

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

67-39  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Jul 26 • 1:40 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

44-62  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Emmet Sheehan
STARTING PITCHER

Emmet Sheehan

#80 | Starting Pitcher
@
Devin Williams
STARTING PITCHER

Devin Williams

#38 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emmet Sheehan 4-7 4.95 1.27 5.0 5
Devin Williams None-None 4.41 -- 1.0 3
4-7 W-L None-None
4.95 ERA Ldr 4.41
1.27 WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
41%
📊
METS
59%
DODGERS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 51%
Under 0 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

40.1%

Mets Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
LOS ANGELES
4.8
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Dodgers Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 LAD @ NYM 3 - 8
Jul 25, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 3
Jul 24, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 NYM @ LAD 2 - 8
Apr 14, 2026 NYM @ LAD 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.762 ▲
OPS
.705
204
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +63.7% more
New York: 4.0 vs Los Angeles: 2.5
Strikeouts (L5) +40.6% more
New York: 11.2 vs Los Angeles: 8.0
Errors (L5) +26.0% more
New York: 0.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +22.6% more
Los Angeles: 14.7 vs New York: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 3.8 3
NYM Score 4.8 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 8.6 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.2 / 8.0 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 14.7 13.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.0 / 2.5 7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
LAD
NYM
LAD
ML
50% 79-80
56% 92-73
48% 76-83
48% 79-87
ATS
58% 93-66
59% 98-67
49% 78-81
43% 72-94
TTL
55% 80-66-13
48% 77-82-6
51% 74-72-13
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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