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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

45-62  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Jul 26 • 1:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

50-56  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Luinder Avila
STARTING PITCHER

Luinder Avila

#58 | SP
@
Framber Valdez
STARTING PITCHER

Framber Valdez

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luinder Avila 5-3 4.95 1.56 4.1 2
Framber Valdez 5-7 4.53 1.38 5.0 4
5-3 W-L 5-7
4.95 ERA Ldr 4.53
1.56 WHIP Ldr 1.38
4.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
45%
📊
TIGERS
55%
ROYALS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Detroit)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

44.0%

Tigers Cover

56.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

KC By 1-2 runs

17.2%

KC By 3-4 runs

11.8%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.3%

DET By 3-4 runs

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
KANSAS CITY
4.8
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u9.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 DET @ KC 7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026 DET @ KC 1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 DET @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026 KC @ DET 5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026 KC @ DET 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.718
OPS
▲ .720
170
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +34.5% more
Detroit: 2.3 vs Kansas City: 1.7
Errors (L5) +21.0% more
Detroit: 0.5 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Hits (L5) +8.4% more
Detroit: 7.7 vs Kansas City: 7.1
Home Runs (Season) +6.5% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.2 5
DET Score 4.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 7.1 9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 7.8 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 12.2 11.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.3 / 1.7 7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
KC
DET
KC
ML
54% 86-73
55% 89-72
54% 87-73
56% 90-70
ATS
64% 101-58
57% 91-70
57% 91-69
58% 93-67
TTL
46% 69-81-9
58% 90-64-7
46% 69-81-10
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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