TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
48-58 | Road
1
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
54-50 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ranger Suarez
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braydon Fisher | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Ranger Suarez | 4-3 | 3.02 | 1.16 | 4.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
4-3
4.15
ERA
Ldr 3.02
--
WHIP
1.16
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
42%
RED SOX
58%
BLUE JAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.9%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.3
TORONTO
Boston
6.2
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Sox
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.5
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.692
▲
OPS
.409
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+43.5% more
Boston: 2.8
vs
Toronto: 1.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.7% more
Boston: 9.9
vs
Toronto: 8.0
Home Runs (L5)
+15.0% more
Boston: 0.9
vs
Toronto: 0.7
Home Runs (Season)
+98.7% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.3
1
BOS Score
6.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 9.8
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 8.0
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 14.0
12.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.8 / 1.9
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
50%
80-80
46%
74-87
47%
76-87
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
90-71
48%
79-84
49%
79-81
TTL
46%
72-83-5
51%
80-76-5
47%
74-83-6
45%
70-85-5
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