ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
62-43 | Road
3
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
51-55 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Reynaldo Lopez
#40 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Baz
#34 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo Lopez | 4-3 | 3.64 | 1.36 | 5.2 | 6 |
| Shane Baz | 4-9 | 3.98 | 1.37 | 4.1 | 2 |
4-3
W-L
4-9
3.64 Ldr
ERA
3.98
1.36 Ldr
WHIP
1.37
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.1
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
38%
ORIOLES
62%
BRAVES
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Baltimore
5.5
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
B
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
ATL @ BAL
3 - 2
Jul 25, 2026
ATL @ BAL
2 - 3
Jul 24, 2026
ATL @ BAL
7 - 6
Jul 6, 2025
BAL @ ATL
2 - 1
Jul 5, 2025
BAL @ ATL
9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Baltimore
BAL
1
Games Played
▲
161
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.757
▲
OPS
.711
1
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+19800.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+132.5% more
Baltimore: 4.7
vs
Atlanta: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.0% more
Baltimore: 12.0
vs
Atlanta: 9.5
Home Runs (L5)
+47.3% more
Atlanta: 1.7
vs
Baltimore: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.0
3
BAL Score
5.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.6
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
12.0 / 9.5
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 15.5
9.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.7 / 2.0
6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
ATL
BAL
ATL
ML
53%
83-73
46%
77-90
57%
90-69
54%
90-78
ATS
61%
95-60-1
57%
96-71
57%
90-68-1
52%
87-81
TTL
54%
81-70-5
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-75-6
49%
76-80-11
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