ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
55-51 | Road
7
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
54-52 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kohl Drake
#58 | P@
STARTING PITCHER
Miles Mikolas
#36 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kohl Drake | 0-0 | 5.00 | 1.20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Miles Mikolas | 3-7 | 5.65 | 1.34 | 4.0 | 1 |
0-0
W-L
3-7
5.00 Ldr
ERA
5.65
1.20 Ldr
WHIP
1.34
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
41%
NATIONALS
59%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
ARI @ WSH
7 - 10
Jul 25, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 5
Jul 24, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
WSH @ ARI
1 - 5
Jun 6, 2026
WSH @ ARI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.246
Avg (AVG)
.246
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.720
OPS
▲
.744
166
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+47.0% more
Washington: 1.3
vs
Arizona: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.4% more
Washington: 7.5
vs
Arizona: 5.9
Home Runs (Season)
+26.5% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Total Bases (L5)
+19.2% more
Washington: 17.0
vs
Arizona: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.0
7
WSH Score
5.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.5 / 9.5
15.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.9
4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 5.9
4.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
17.0 / 14.3
32.0 / 19.0
Walks
4.4 / 4.1
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ARI
WSH
ARI
ML
57%
92-69
54%
87-74
54%
87-74
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
91-70
57%
91-70
56%
89-71
TTL
50%
77-78-6
52%
80-73-8
42%
65-90-6
49%
73-77-9
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