CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
54-53 | Road
0
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
62-43 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Rasmussen
#57 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | 8-5 | 2.59 | 1.05 | 7.2 | 6 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 8-5 | 3.07 | 0.98 | 7.0 | 9 |
8-5
W-L
8-5
2.59 Ldr
ERA
3.07
1.05
WHIP
Ldr 0.98
7.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
7.0
6
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
41%
RAYS
59%
GUARDIANS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
64%
Under 0
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Guardians (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 19, 2026
CLE @ TB
3 - 7
Oct 18, 2026
TB @ CLE
3 - 1
Oct 17, 2026
TB @ CLE
7 - 3
Oct 15, 2026
TB @ CLE
2 - 3
Oct 13, 2026
CLE @ TB
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.728
162
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+43.9% more
Tampa Bay: 15.5
vs
Cleveland: 10.8
Hits (L5)
+43.7% more
Tampa Bay: 10.3
vs
Cleveland: 7.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.6% more
Tampa Bay: 8.5
vs
Cleveland: 7.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.4% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.0
0
TB Score
5.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.3 / 7.1
6.0 / 1.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 7.6
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 10.8
7.0 / 2.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.7
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
90-83-0
(52.0%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
106-69-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(49.7%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
84-88-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
TB
81-88-6
O: 47.9% / U: 52.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CLE
TB
CLE
ML
59%
102-71
54%
92-77
59%
102-71
49%
84-86
ATS
58%
101-72
57%
97-72
54%
93-80
57%
97-73
TTL
48%
78-86-9
55%
92-75-2
51%
83-80-10
43%
72-95-2
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