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CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

54-53  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Jul 26 • 12:15 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

62-43  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Parker Messick
STARTING PITCHER

Parker Messick

#77 | SP
@
Drew Rasmussen
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Rasmussen

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Parker Messick 8-5 2.59 1.05 7.2 6
Drew Rasmussen 8-5 3.07 0.98 7.0 9
8-5 W-L 8-5
2.59 Ldr ERA 3.07
1.05 WHIP Ldr 0.98
7.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 7.0
6 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
41%
📊
RAYS
59%
GUARDIANS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 64%
Under 0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Rays Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
CLEVELAND
5
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Rays Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Guardians (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim u7.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 CLE @ TB 0 - 1
Jul 25, 2026 CLE @ TB 0 - 3
Jul 24, 2026 CLE @ TB 3 - 11
Apr 29, 2026 TB @ CLE 1 - 3
Apr 28, 2026 TB @ CLE 1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .728
162
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +43.9% more
Tampa Bay: 15.5 vs Cleveland: 10.8
Hits (L5) +43.7% more
Tampa Bay: 10.3 vs Cleveland: 7.1
Strikeouts (L5) +12.6% more
Tampa Bay: 8.5 vs Cleveland: 7.6
Runs per Game (Season) +8.4% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 4.0 0
TB Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.3 / 7.1 6.0 / 1.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 7.6 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 15.5 / 10.8 7.0 / 2.0
Walks 2.5 / 2.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CLE
TB
CLE
ML
58% 95-68
54% 87-74
58% 95-68
49% 80-82
ATS
60% 97-66
58% 93-68
55% 90-73
59% 95-67
TTL
47% 73-81-9
55% 88-71-2
51% 78-75-10
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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