SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
51-54 | Road
1
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
53-51 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Woo
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Eovaldi
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo | 7-6 | 4.37 | 1.09 | 5.0 | 5 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 9-8 | 4.05 | 1.21 | 7.0 | 8 |
7-6
W-L
9-8
4.37
ERA
Ldr 4.05
1.09 Ldr
WHIP
1.21
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
44%
RANGERS
56%
MARINERS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
77%
Under 0
23%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
SEA By 1-2 runs
17.2%
SEA By 3-4 runs
11.8%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.3%
TEX By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Texas
5.6
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Texas
4
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
TEX @ SEA
3 - 4
Sep 9, 2026
TEX @ SEA
2 - 3
Sep 8, 2026
TEX @ SEA
10 - 5
Jul 27, 2026
SEA @ TEX
3 - 7
Jul 26, 2026
SEA @ TEX
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.693
OPS
▲
.713
182
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+100.0% more
Texas: 1.6
vs
Seattle: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+38.4% more
Texas: 16.3
vs
Seattle: 11.8
Hits (L5)
+14.9% more
Texas: 9.7
vs
Seattle: 8.5
OPS (Season)
+2.0%
Texas: 71.3%
vs
Seattle: 69.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
5.0
1
TEX Score
5.6
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 8.5
12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 7.8
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.3 / 11.8
19.0 / 6.0
Walks
1.7 / 2.7
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SEA
TEX
SEA
ML
53%
86-76
50%
81-81
57%
91-70
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
92-70
60%
98-64
61%
98-63
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
78-70-14
56%
85-67-10
55%
81-66-14
53%
81-71-10
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