Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Mets LAD @ NYM

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

67-38  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Jul 25 • 7:15 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

43-62  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
STARTING PITCHER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Nolan McLean
STARTING PITCHER

Nolan McLean

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 10-6 2.72 0.88 6.0 5
Nolan McLean 7-6 3.32 1.09 6.0 7
10-6 W-L 7-6
2.72 Ldr ERA 3.32
0.88 Ldr WHIP 1.09
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
5 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
42%
📊
METS
58%
DODGERS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 52%
Under 0 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

40.1%

Mets Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
LOS ANGELES
4.8
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
7
LOS ANGELES
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Dodgers Win
84% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim o7.0 Push
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 LAD @ NYM 3 - 8
Jul 25, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 3
Jul 24, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 NYM @ LAD 2 - 8
Apr 14, 2026 NYM @ LAD 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.762 ▲
OPS
.705
204
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +52.0% more
New York: 11.3 vs Los Angeles: 7.4
Home Runs (L5) +27.7% more
New York: 1.7 vs Los Angeles: 1.3
Walks (L5) +12.7% more
New York: 3.0 vs Los Angeles: 2.7
Hits (L5) +18.3% more
Los Angeles: 9.0 vs New York: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 3.8 4
NYM Score 4.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 9.0 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.3 / 7.4 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 16.0 7.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.7 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
LAD
NYM
LAD
ML
50% 79-80
56% 92-73
48% 76-83
48% 79-87
ATS
58% 93-66
59% 98-67
49% 78-81
43% 72-94
TTL
55% 80-66-13
48% 77-82-6
51% 74-72-13
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 44 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 54 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 6 hours, 32 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 6 hours, 42 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 6 hours, 43 minutes ago