HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
52-54 | Road
4
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
54-49 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Brown
#58 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | 1-1 | 3.45 | 1.45 | 7.0 | 7 |
| Sean Burke | 7-4 | 3.19 | 1.13 | 6.0 | 10 |
1-1
W-L
7-4
3.45
ERA
Ldr 3.19
1.45
WHIP
Ldr 1.13
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
7
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 10
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
46%
WHITE SOX
54%
ASTROS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
49%
Under 0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.1%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.1%
CHW By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Chicago
4.5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Astros (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHW @ HOU
7 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
CHW @ HOU
6 - 3
Sep 3, 2026
CHW @ HOU
2 - 6
Sep 2, 2026
CHW @ HOU
0 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
CHW @ HOU
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Chicago
CHW
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.582
OPS
▲
.826
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+100.0% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+74.0% more
Chicago: 0.8
vs
Houston: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+34.6% more
Chicago: 3.8
vs
Houston: 2.8
OPS (Season)
+24.4%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.0
4
CHW Score
4.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 9.8
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 1.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.3
10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 16.5
5.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.8
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
HOU
CHW
HOU
ML
49%
81-86
50%
81-82
56%
94-73
47%
77-87
ATS
59%
99-68
56%
91-72
56%
93-74
55%
90-74
TTL
58%
96-69-2
45%
70-84-9
51%
84-81-2
45%
69-86-9
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