ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
61-43 | Road
2
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
51-54 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Elder
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Young
#63 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | 6-6 | 3.96 | 1.23 | 5.0 | 8 |
| Brandon Young | 8-2 | 3.13 | 1.31 | 6.1 | 6 |
6-6
W-L
8-2
3.96
ERA
Ldr 3.13
1.23 Ldr
WHIP
1.31
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
36%
ORIOLES
64%
BRAVES
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Baltimore
5.5
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Braves
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
B
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
ATL @ BAL
3 - 2
Jul 25, 2026
ATL @ BAL
2 - 3
Jul 24, 2026
ATL @ BAL
7 - 6
Jul 6, 2025
BAL @ ATL
2 - 1
Jul 5, 2025
BAL @ ATL
9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Baltimore
BAL
1
Games Played
▲
161
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.757
▲
OPS
.711
1
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+19800.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+149.5% more
Baltimore: 5.1
vs
Atlanta: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+89.0% more
Baltimore: 1.3
vs
Atlanta: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.3% more
Baltimore: 11.0
vs
Atlanta: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.0
2
BAL Score
5.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.5 / 9.9
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 2.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 9.8
14.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 17.7
11.0 / 11.0
Walks
5.1 / 2.0
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
ATL
BAL
ATL
ML
53%
83-73
46%
77-90
57%
90-69
54%
90-78
ATS
61%
95-60-1
57%
96-71
57%
90-68-1
52%
87-81
TTL
54%
81-70-5
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-75-6
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Yankees Fan Ejected After Interfering with Potential Game-Tying …