CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
59-45 | Road
11
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
53-52 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Shota Imanaga
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | 6-8 | 3.72 | 1.11 | 6.0 | 4 |
| Paul Skenes | 9-8 | 3.65 | 1.04 | 5.1 | 11 |
6-8
W-L
9-8
3.72
ERA
Ldr 3.65
1.11
WHIP
Ldr 1.04
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.1
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 11
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
41%
PIRATES
60%
CUBS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
CHC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CHC By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
PIT @ CHC
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
PIT @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
PIT @ CHC
2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026
CHC @ PIT
7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026
CHC @ PIT
11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.374
OPS
▲
.734
0
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+18600.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+423.0% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+36.0%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+25.9%
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.0
11
PIT Score
5.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.5
5.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 10.5
7.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
10.4 / 12.9
5.0 / 23.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.3
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CHC
PIT
CHC
ML
52%
82-77
58%
93-68
52%
85-78
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
86-73
61%
97-63-1
50%
81-82
47%
75-85-1
TTL
47%
72-81-6
52%
81-74-6
50%
79-78-6
46%
72-83-6
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